By Diane Streleckis - Being able to anticipate potential problems—and opportunities—is invaluable to communication professionals crafting positioning and key messages. That’s where futurists such as Stephen Dupont, APR, Fellow PRSA, can help. In advance of his IABC Philadelphia Future Watch webinar on September 19, Dupont shares perspective on an array of topics from big data and AI’s effects on trend spotting to how communication professionals can use predictive analytics to prepare for uncertainties.

Has the explosion of “big data” made your life as a futurist easier? If so, how? If not, how has it complicated things?

Whether you’re a professional futurist or a professional communicator, more accurate data is a good thing. More and better data establishes a reality for all players within an organization to base their understanding of what has happened, what is happening now, in the present, and what might happen.

The issue then becomes, what data is more important than other types of data, and how do we interpret that data, which, in turn, helps us to make more plausible forecasts. This is where developing the skills of curation comes into play, which is important for futurists.

For example, many professional futurists look at demographic changes as a signal of change. For example, the U.S., like many other countries, including China, Russia, Japan and many EU countries are experiencing historical drops in their birthrates. Birth rate is just one data point. But it offers a significant starting point to ask questions:

• Why are these birthrates dropping?
• Are there different reasons in each culture as to why those birthrates are dropping? Or is there a common pattern among all of these countries?
• Are there other cultures/countries that are experiencing dramatic rises in their birthrates? If so, why?
• How could a falling birthrate affect our organization (our society, economy, infrastructure, etc.) in the future?

So, yes, our ability to access data is more important than ever! And yes, it has made our work easier and more complex at the same time.

How is generative AI affecting the futurist field?

Regardless of what field you’re in, we are only beginning to understand what future effects AI will have.

Like other fields, futurists are experimenting with generative AI to develop scenarios, to create images of the future, and much more.

What’s your view on whether the trends and ideas futurists identify influence outcomes and actually produce the trends?

I look at trends as stories that futurists use to communicate a pattern of change that has happened, is happening now, or may happen in the future. For example, many of us are watching what is happening with AI in our world and futurists help to project where that trend may lead. The reality is the influence of AI is very complex. Trends help to simplify the story and share it in a format that people (customers, employees, investors, policy makers) can understand.

As futurists, we seek to identify and understand patterns of change and to determine how long those patterns will play out, their rate of acceleration and the potential for impact. Professional futurists often do extensive research, oftentimes connecting with other experts, to identify emerging signals of change (weak signals of change today that could become major changes tomorrow). What futurists are really good at doing is helping to connect the dots between one trend and another and sharing possibilities of where things may land sometime in the future.

Throughout your career, was there an event that you didn’t anticipate? If so, what was it and why?

When I worked for GMAC Financial Services, I was appointed to a special task force to develop strategies as to what the company would do in the event of a global bird flu pandemic. I was brought in for my crisis communications expertise and that process led me to develop a comprehensive crisis communications plan that anticipated a number of disruptive events.

What I and others missed, however, was the sudden financial collapse in the U.S. mortgage and housing markets.

This is what foresight professionals help organizations with – to avoid being blindsided.Four years ago, the big pandemic finally did happen. And again, many organizations found themselves blindsided.

Here’s the point: the future doesn’t happen all at once and it doesn’t happen evenly (notice that some countries were impacted far more by the Covid pandemic than others). But if we focus our attention and watch those signals, we can better prepare our organizations so they have the resilience they need to endure disruptive change.

On the flip side, was there an event you saw coming that others didn’t? If so, what was it and how did you anticipate it?

I don’t know if I was unique in seeing the following, but I did share these trends/events with the communications community:

• At the 2001 PRSA national conference, I gave a presentation that forecasted the fragmentation of the media and the rise of hactivists.
• At the 2018 PRSA ICON conference, during my presentation about how to embrace a futurist mindset, I spoke about the importance of not assuming the world will continue as it is – and specifically said, “Don’t assume that democracy will always be the preferred choice of government for the United States.”
• In 2019, at the PRSA ICON conference, in my presentation about Alpha Gen, I spoke about how generations are often influenced by trauma – World War II, the Cold War, Columbine school shooting, and pandemics.

How would you advise a communication professional to use predictive analytics and content to prepare for potentially uncertain events, such as the election outcome?

This is [the focus of] my presentation. (Be sure to sign up for IABC Philadelphia’s Future Watch webinar, September 19, noon-1 pm.)

Communicators should adopt a futures mindset
to help them anticipate and prepare for change.

This year’s U.S. presidential election offers an excellent example. There are two starkly different visions for our country and the world that Americans will vote on in this election (at all levels – not just the presidency).

Communicators should be watching the polls. They should be gauging the momentum behind each campaign. They should be listening to what various stakeholder groups are saying. And they should be preparing. For example, if you work in the energy industry, which is heavily regulated, who wins control of the White House, Senate and the House of Representatives, could matter over the next four years.

If you’re following the news, the leaders of many countries are doing just this – they’re putting plans in place now to react to either outcome. The war in Ukraine and the actions of both armies are being heavily influenced by what they think will happen in this election

I’d also like to make this point: You should vote and we should encourage every American to vote. It truly is an act of futures thinking. When we vote, we are actively engaging in the future we want. Case in point: the justices appointed to the Supreme Court. There’s a possibility that as many as three justices could be replaced in the coming four years. That can have an impact on our country for decades.

Diane Streleckis is a writer and content strategist dedicated to using the power of words for good. Understanding what makes people tick and then sharing practical ideas to help support their needs and concerns is Diane’s mission. She’s applied this mission mindset across industries for more than 30 years.